Mind the lag: Using assessed and list prices as proxies for housing market values

with Gabriel Ahfeldt, Hans Koster

Abstract: Property transaction prices are widely regarded as the best measure of property value, but are sometimes unavailable. Using data from the Netherlands and New York City, we analyze whether list prices and assessed values are reliable substitutes. In the cross-section, both proxies strongly predict sales prices, and estimated hedonic implicit prices resemble those based on sales prices. Over time, there is a sluggish adjustment in both proxies, but much more so in assessed values---particularly when they are based on rental incomes. While assessed values are well-suited for cross-sectional hedonic modelling or the quantification of static quantitative spatial models, list prices are better suited for the estimation of hedonic implicit prices from variation over time, although some attenuation bias should be expected.

[SSRN]

Cities divided by rivers: How water bodies steer urban expansion

with Eric Koomen

Abstract: Many cities were founded near rivers, yet the same water bodies that initiated and sustained their growth may inhibit their further development. This study explores the barrier effect of rivers on the expansion of urban agglomerations. Using logistic regression models with a Mundlak approach, we analyze the probability of urban expansion across rivers. Our models capture the core spatial dimensions of a large sample of Dutch cities and the rivers that bisect them. By analyzing urban development in the Netherlands between 1900 and 2010, we find that wider rivers significantly reduce the likelihood of urban expansion across river. This barrier effect is strongest when the urban core lies close to the river and diminishes with distance. The barrier effect of river width is weaker during the mid-20th century. These findings highlight how natural barriers, spatial configuration, and development pressure jointly shape urban form and provide quantifiable thresholds for when rivers become constraints to urban growth. 

Presented: 24th European Colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography, Tallinn, Estonia. 

Are households better off in the "housing affordability crisis"?

with Hans Koster, Jos van Ommeren

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